1Project overview
A forecasting and inventory-planning system for raw materials at a feed mill, connected directly to production scheduling.
2Objective
Improve raw material availability and production scheduling at the feed mill.
3My role
- Built a Holt-Winters seasonal forecast of raw material demand.
- Set safety stock and reorder levels using an (R, Q) inventory model.
- Designed a cross-docking strategy for finished-product distribution.
- Connected forecasts to production scheduling decisions.
4Engineering approach
Seasonal forecasting
Holt-Winters (triple exponential smoothing) to capture level, trend, and seasonality in raw material demand.
Inventory policy
An (R, Q) model to set reorder points and order quantities, with safety stock sized to the target service level.
Distribution
A cross-docking strategy for moving finished product out with less storage and handling.
Scheduling link
Forecasts feed production scheduling so material arrives ahead of planned runs.
5Analysis and visuals
Image to add: Holt-Winters forecast chart
Actual vs. forecast demand by period. Add your real data and this can become an interactive chart.
Image to add: Cross-docking flow diagram
Your own diagram of inbound and outbound flow through the cross-dock.
6Results and impact
- −25%lead time
- 75→95%customer service level
Cut lead time by 25% and raised the customer service level from about 75% to 95%.